Anthony Rizzo missed 63 games in 2023 with concussion symptoms, finishing the season with a 100 wRC+, 94 OPS+ and .312 wOBA. He hit just 12 home runs, rounding out the season as a below average MLB hitter.

There was some optimism coming into the 2024 season, as the Yankees (David Ross) had seemingly diagnosed Rizzo’s concussion symptoms (albeit a bit late) last season. He could start fresh in 2024.

Aside from his concussion issues last year, though, Anthony Rizzo also has a history with back problems. Rizzo had an epidural in September of the 2022 season and missed a handful of games. He had just 59 Plate Appearances in September/October that season and finished with a .216/.322/,373 slash line with a .314 wOBA and 107 wRC+. His hard hit rate was 32.6% over that sample and his average exit velocity dropped to 88 MPH.

If there’s one thing that back issues are going to do, it’s zap your power and ability to hit the ball hard consistently. Anthony Rizzo’s batted ball profile so far for 2024 is what you would expect to see from a 34-year-old hitter with a history of back issues, and very similar to the one he had in that 59 PA stretch in September of 2022.

But Rizzo started 2023 strong, going from Opening Day to May 28th (the day where Anthony Rizzo’s concussion started) with a 148 wRC+. He was sporting a 40% hard hit rate and was a key cog in the Yankees’ 2023 lineup. Then the concussion happened, and he hasn’t been the same since.

But the larger trend shows a consistent decline over the past four seasons. Can we attribute some of that to the concussion? Absolutely. But there’s also room for discussion about those back issues at the end of ’22.

Rizzo’s Hard Hit Rate has decreased each season since 2021.

• 2021: 41.1%
• 2022: 41.0%
• 2023: 37.5%
• 2024: 35.1%

With that has come a significant dip in xwOBA and xSLG

xwOBA:

• 2021: .347
• 2022: .349
• 2023: .319
• 2024: .282

xSLG:

• 2021: .434
• 2022: .454
• 2023: .393
• 2024: .316

The final kicker is that Anthony Rizzo’s barrel rate for 2024 is 1.8% in 2024, down from 6.9% in 2023 and 10.9% in 2022.

Can we attribute this to lingering concussion issues? Maybe. Can we attribute to general aging? Maybe. Can we attribute it to his history of back issues? Maybe! It’s likely a combination of all of those things.

None of the peripheral numbers are encouraging, but FanGraphs’ Steamer projections project Rizzo as a 107 wRC+ hitter for the rest of the season with 20 home runs and a slash line of .237/.329/.412.

While that’s still a ways off from where he was in 2022, it’s better than the 88 wRC+ production he’s provided so far. In many ways we’ve seen the best of Anthony Rizzo already, as should be expected when we’re talking about a 34-year-old, but one needs to wonder how long he can remain in the middle of the Yankee order.